How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.